Referendum turnout projection points to up to a million voters

By 4 pm, 603,057 voters had cast ballots in today's referendums. That is 35.53 percent of all 1,698,526 eligible voters. By 11 am, 237,914 had voted, or 14.0 percent.

If today follows the pattern of previous referendums, between about 850,000 and about 940,000 people will have voted by evening. The projection rose after the afternoon data. The morning one predicted from 700,000 to almost a million. It is now based on seven referendums between 2015 and 2025 for which we have turnout figures up to 4 pm. Final turnout was always higher than turnout at 4 pm, ranging from 1.41 times (the second track in 2018) to 1.56 times (the water act in 2021). The average is 1.47 times.

For today's share, that means turnout of roughly 52 percent, or about 885,000 voters. The range runs from 50 to 55 percent, which is about 850,000 to about 940,000 voters. The calculation is ours. The State Election Commission (DVK) does not publish a projection.

Turnout is already higher than at the same time in the November referendum on voluntary ending of life, when 29.03 percent of voters had cast ballots by 4 pm and final turnout was 41.08 percent. In the July 2021 referendum on the water act, it was 29.76 percent by 4 pm and 46.46 percent at the end.

The highest turnout by 4 pm is in the Ljubljana Center electoral unit at 36.86 percent, the lowest in Postojna at 33.34 percent. Among districts, Škofja Loka 2 leads with 44.36 percent, and Piran trails with 26.44 percent.

The quorum matters. At a legislative referendum, a law is rejected if a majority of voters vote against it and at the same time at least a fifth of all eligible voters do, which is 339,706 votes. Under the average projection, half of the voters is about 442,000, clearly above the threshold. The threshold would become an obstacle only if fewer than 679,412 people voted.

Even in the lowest scenario, about 850,000 voters, half is about 425,000, which is roughly 85,000 above the threshold.

The projection is a calculation based on past referendums, not a forecast. The final turnout figures will be published by the State Election Commission.