Projection says 52%, yet only 603,000 had voted by 4 pm

By 4 pm, 603,057 voters had cast their ballots in the referendums, which is 35.53 percent of all eligible voters. The State Election Commission (DVK) does not list such a high share at the same hour for any of the seven earlier referendums it uses to compare this year's turnout.

The closest was July 2021, on the amendment to the water act, when 505,539 voters, or 29.76 percent, had voted by 4 pm. In November 2025, on the law on assisted voluntary ending of life, 492,142 voted, or 29.03 percent. This year, almost one hundred thousand more voters had voted by the same hour than in 2021, and more than one hundred and ten thousand more than in November 2025.

The other referendums were much emptier at 4 pm: the amendment to the government act in 2022 reached 27.54 percent, same-sex marriage in 2015 24.99, pensions for artists in May 2025 17.72, the second rail track ("drugi tir") in 2017 14.30 and in 2018 only 10.67 percent.

The comparison is not entirely like for like: for this year the DVK lists multiple referendums, while the comparison cases are single votes on one law.

Units are almost identical, districts are not

The gap between electoral units is small. The highest turnout was in the Ljubljana Center unit (36.86 percent) and the lowest in the Postojna unit (33.34 percent). The difference between them is less than four percentage points.

Among districts the gap is almost eighteen points. In Škofja Loka 2 turnout was 44.36 percent, in Piran 26.44 percent.

"The electoral district with the highest turnout is Škofja Loka 2, at 44.36 percent, and the lowest is Piran, at 26.44 percent." (translated)

In November 2025 the same districts held the same places: Škofja Loka 2 was on top with 41.19 percent and Piran at the bottom with 19.89 percent. Since then Piran has gained 6.55 points and Škofja Loka 2 3.17. Nationally, turnout at 4 pm rose by 6.50 points, from 29.03 to 35.53 percent.

How many will vote in the end

At 4 pm the DVK does not forecast final turnout. Our calculation is based on the same seven referendums: the ratio between final turnout and turnout at 4 pm ranged from 1.41 to 1.56, and averaged 1.47. If that held this year, final turnout would be about 52 percent, in a range of 50 to 55 percent.

This is a calculation, not a forecast. In the last hours before polling stations close, the ratio can move up or down.